Navigating Market Bots & Strategies

Guide to Common Weather Market Bots

Automated trading programs (bots) are active in these markets. Understanding their likely behavior can help you navigate trading, especially around specific data release times.

Note: Bot behavior can change, and this information reflects common observations from the community.

DSM Bot

This type of bot reacts quickly to the release of NWS Daily Summary Messages (DSMs), which often contain the updated high temperature observed so far.

Warning: Avoid leaving unprotected limit orders (especially sell orders below the current high, or buy orders right at the current high) around the expected DSM release times. A bot might instantly fill your order if the DSM reveals a new high temperature that makes your position unfavorable.

Approximate DSM Release Times (in Zulu Time - Z):

You'll need to convert these to your local time zone, remembering Z time does not follow Daylight Saving. Check current NWS schedules for precise timing.

City (Station)	DSM Releases (~ Z Time)	Coverage Period (Z Time)
NY (KNYC)	20:21, 21:21, 05:17	05:01Z to Report Time / Previous Day
Philly (KPHL)	10:32, 21:17, 05:17, 05:47	05:01Z to Report Time / Previous Day
Miami (KMIA)	07:22, 20:12, 21:12, 05:17	05:01Z to Report Time / Previous Day
Chicago (KMDW)	21:17, 22:17, 06:17	06:01Z to Report Time / Previous Day
Austin (KAUS)	21:17, 22:17, 06:17	06:01Z to Report Time / Previous Day
Denver (KDEN)	12:17, 22:17, 23:17, 07:17	07:01Z to Report Time / Previous Day
LA (KLAX)	22:08, 01:08, 08:08	08:01Z to Report Time / Previous Day

*DSM coverage periods indicate the time range the reported high temperature is based on (e.g., 05:01 Z up to 20:00 Z for the first KNYC DSM).

OMO Bot

OMO stands for One-Minute Observation. Some ASOS stations allow access to near-real-time data via a dial-in phone system, traditionally used by pilots. Bots can automate calls to this system.

The "Advantage": Public NWS Time Series data usually only shows 5-minute readings. OMO bots can potentially access the temperature readings for the minutes *between* those public reports.
Data Format: The temperature is typically provided in Celsius (°C), meaning it still has rounding ambiguity when converted back to Fahrenheit (°F). (See Rounding Formula).
Access Limitation: Often, only one call can access the ASOS line at a time.

Warning: Be cautious leaving limit orders exposed when the current temperature is near the day's high, especially in cities where OMO bots are known to be active (see City Resources Summary). If the bot hears a new maximum temperature (even just a new rounded °C value) before it's public, it might quickly fill orders that become unfavorable due to the new information.

6 Hour Bot

This bot monitors the 6-hourly maximum temperature reported in specific NWS hourly observations.

Data Point: The highest temperature (°F) recorded in the previous 6-hour period. This value often includes OMOs (one-minute data) that might not appear on the standard 5-minute timeseries.
Release Times: Found within the hourly observations released around:
- 23:51 Z - 23:54 Z (Covers 18Z-00Z period)
- 05:51 Z - 05:54 Z (Covers 00Z-06Z period)
- 11:51 Z - 11:54 Z (Covers 06Z-12Z period)
- 17:51 Z - 17:54 Z (Covers 12Z-18Z period)

Warning: Similar to DSMs, avoid leaving vulnerable limit orders open around these times. A new 6-hour maximum could be revealed, potentially including a high temperature missed by other public data sources.

CLI Bot

Refers to bots potentially reacting to the release of Climatological Reports (CLIs). While the final CLI determines settlement, preliminary CLIs are released earlier.

Note: There's speculation this bot type might be less active or predictable now. However, understanding CLI data remains vital.

Key Consideration: Remember that all data before the *final* daily CLI is preliminary and subject to NWS quality control. Obvious errors in timeseries data (e.g., due to sensor issues) might be corrected in the final CLI. Trade cautiously if you spot potential data errors.

"240" Bot (Market Maker)

This bot provides liquidity by consistently placing orders for a significant number of contracts (e.g., 240) on both the buy and sell side, often with a narrow spread (e.g., 2 cents).

Function: Provides liquidity, making it easier for others to enter/exit positions.
Behavior: Adjusts its bid/ask prices based on its internal forecast and inventory. Trading against it repeatedly might cause it to shift its prices.
Interaction: If you're confident in your forecast and see the bot offering liquidity, you might trade against it, but be aware it's likely algorithmic.

"UI" Bot

This bot rapidly adds and removes orders, causing the order book interface to jump around frantically.

It is generally considered harmless to fundamental trading strategies but can be visually distracting.

"1-Up" Bot

This bot places orders just slightly above/below (e.g., 1 cent higher bid or 1 cent lower ask) than the current best visible price, aiming to improve their queue position without significantly changing the market level.

Warning: Paid Tools / "Entrepreneur's Bot"

Be cautious of individuals or services selling tools, insights, or bots with grand promises of guaranteed riches.

Often, these tools simply repackage publicly available information (like NWS data feeds) into a paid product. Your time and money might be better spent learning to access and interpret the primary sources yourself.

Always critically evaluate paid offerings and understand exactly what they provide versus what you can find for free.

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